The United States is facing an Axis of Aggressors — Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. It’s not the first time that America has faced an Axis. In 1940, President Franklin D. Roosevelt warned of growing dangers from Germany, Japan, and Italy. It may not have been a message people wanted to hear, but it was the plain truth.
President Franklin D. Roosevelt, fireside chat, December 29, 1940, less than one year before the attack on Pearl Harbor.
“During the past week many people in all parts of the nation have told me what they wanted me to say tonight. Almost all of them expressed a courageous desire to hear the plain truth about the gravity of the situation. One telegram, however, expressed the attitude of the small minority who want to see no evil and hear no evil, even though they know in their hearts that evil exists… The gist of that telegram was: ‘Please, Mr. President, don’t frighten us by telling us the facts.’”
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What are the facts of the current situation?
The new book, Axis of Aggressors by Bradley L. Bowman, Elaine K. Dezenski, and Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, delivers the most rigorous, comprehensive analysis to date of how America’s authoritarian adversaries are cooperating; why that cooperation matters; and how Americans should respond.
Quoted material below is taken from the book unless otherwise specified.
Researchers documented 616 incidents of Axis security cooperation from January 2019 to December 2025 across five categories: Weapons Development, Arms Transfers, Military Exercises & Deployments, Intelligence Sharing, and Military Exchanges.
Russia
North Korea
Iran
China
Plus 37 multilateral events involving three or more Axis members.
Axis of Aggressors cooperation is multifaceted, growing, and increasingly consequential…
The Axis is not
—
a comprehensive mutual defense treaty or a unified command structure
—
a multilateral alliance like NATO
—
monolithic
These Axis adversaries harbor
—
some unique interests and divergent objectives
—
significant distrust and compete with one another
—
difficult bilateral histories
Nonetheless, Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang are increasingly willing to set aside differences and cooperate around shared domestic and foreign policy goals. Those include a desire to control their populations, maintain their autocratic grips on power, facilitate aggression, and create an international system that accommodates their aggression and authoritarianism. Most concerningly for Americans, Axis members are united by a shared hostility toward the United States, its interests, and its allies and partners.
1/3
of China’s oil imports came from Russia and Iran in 2024
“This asymmetric trade relationship gives China significant leverage over its Axis partners, who are frequently relegated to the uncomfortable position of junior partner or even vassal state.”
80%+
of observed security cooperation among the Axis involves Moscow — the most of any Axis member, according to the dataset described in the book
“While China is the heart of Axis economic cooperation, Russia is the heart of Axis security cooperation.”
10,000+
troops deployed to Russia in 2024 “to support combat operations in Kursk” — per the U.S. intelligence community — with more likely on the way
“Though Russia benefited from some additional manpower to reverse Ukraine’s advance in Kursk, the Korean People’s Army arguably benefited just as much from the opportunity to gain combat experience.”
Shahed-136
is the design that “became Russia’s long-range, one-way attack drone of choice,” and whose technology proliferated to the rest of the Axis
“Although unquestionably a junior partner within the Axis, Tehran has played an important role as both a patron and a beneficiary of security cooperation.”
The patron and beneficiary
How the Shahed-136 one-way attack drone and its descendants became the shared weapon system of the axis.
An Iranian-designed Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone used by the Russian army flies over Kyiv during a drone and missile attack, December 27, 2025. Photo by Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images.
Iran develops an inexpensive, one-way attack drone capable of striking targets over 1,000 miles away.
An engine of a Russian Shahed-136 (Geran-2) drone found at the site of a strike on a medical center in Kyiv, November 7, 2024. Photo by Andriy Zhyhaylo/Obozrevatel/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images.
Iran transfers Shahed-136s, as well as the design and production specifications to Russia.
Alabuga UAS Factory, February 24, 2023 and February 4, 2026. Copyright © 2026 by Vantor. Images may not be republished without permission.
Russia produces thousands of Geran-2 (their version of the Shahed-136) at the Alabuga factory in Russia. The weapon that originated in Iran now sustains Russia’s air campaign.
Photo via Getty Images.
China supplies engines and other components for the Shahed-136 while developing similar models for the Chinese military.
A claimed North Korean drone test. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
Russia begins transferring drone production technology to North Korea — completing the cascade. The DNA of one Iranian weapon now lives in all four Axis members’ arsenals.
A Russian Shahed (Geran-2) drone displayed outside the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry in Kyiv, July 23, 2025. Photo by Eduard Kryzhanivskyi/Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images.
During the U.S.-Iran conflict, Russia reportedly plans to send upgraded versions of the Shahed-136 to Iran, which would increase the lethality of the drones against U.S. forces.
The new axis
China’s factory-to-the-world economy runs on discounted energy from a sanctioned Russia and Iran — and its exports keep Moscow’s war machine supplied.
Power of alternative payment systems
Axis states are quietly building alternative payment systems, local-currency trade, and crypto channels designed to blunt U.S. sanctions power. Today these are small and fragile — but they are maturing.
Power of Siberia pipeline
A steady flow of Siberian gas to Shanghai — slated for 38 billion cubic meters a year, roughly 9 percent of China’s 2024 gas consumption.
Discounted sanctioned crude
Russia sells oil $2.50–$20 per barrel below market-set benchmark; Chinese buyers of sanctioned Russian crude may have saved $16 billion.
The Axis trades the tools of digital control — firewalls, surveillance systems, and offensive cyber tradecraft.
Russia’s “Iron Curtain”
Russia brought in Chinese specialists to help build a domestic internet modeled on China’s own “Great Firewall,” through a series of hosted delegations.
Surveillance equipment exports to Iran
China supplied Iran video surveillance, drone cameras, and AI facial-recognition software; Iran is implementing a social credit system mirroring China’s.
Sharing exploits and zero-days
Tradecraft, exploits, and zero-days (flaws in software the creator doesn’t know about) are the most coveted aspects of offensive cyber operations — and the ones Axis members have begun to share.
Arms, ammunition, and manpower move across the Axis.
North Korea fighting in Europe
Pyongyang sends millions of munitions and thousands of troops to fight in Europe to support Putin’s invasion.
China and Russia supporting Iran
Moscow and Beijing send Tehran information to target U.S. troops. Russia helps with drones, and China helps with missile precursors.
Fueling current and future war
China supports Putin’s defense industrial base, and Moscow helps Beijing with airborne operations, lessons learned from Ukraine, and potentially submarine quieting.
The response
“While the cooperation between Axis members is strengthening in many ways, there are still weaknesses and fissures among them to exploit.” Below are key recommendations taken from the book Axis of Aggressors describing aspects of the grand strategy the United States should adopt to strengthen the United States, bolster allies and partners, and counter the Axis. For the comprehensive list of 58 recommendations, you may find the book here.
In his fireside address on December 29, 1940, President Roosevelt spoke to an anxious nation. He warned Americans that “never before since Jamestown and Plymouth Rock has our American civilization been in such danger as now.” In 1940, Americans confronted a choice. One year later, that choice was made for them, when the attack at Pearl Harbor rid Americans of the illusion that they could ignore accumulating threats abroad. Today’s threats are different, yet significant and growing. Regardless, the future may depend on the degree to which Americans take the Axis of Aggressors seriously — and act accordingly.
Based on Axis of Aggressors by Bradley L. Bowman, Elaine K. Dezenski, and Rear Admiral (Ret.) Mark Montgomery.
Produced by Pavak Patel. Edited by Jason Fields. Creative design by Daniel Ackerman.
