TOTAL IRAN
ECONOMIC
DAMAGE ESTIMATE
FDD’s first model-based estimate of Iran's economic losses to date due to Operation Epic Fury are $144 billion, or 40 percent of pre-war GDP. With ceasefire talks underway, the economic cost to Iran is a critical part of the negotiating picture.
METHODOLOGY
The model draws on two estimates — hydrocarbon revenue losses and physical replacement costs — each capturing a different dimension of economic harm. Within each component, the model produces low, most likely, and high estimates.
HYDROCARBON
REVENUE LOSS
Combined damage across crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemical revenue streams.
Covers disruptions from naval blockade, infrastructure strikes, and export collapse.
PHYSICAL
REPLACEMENT COST
TOTAL ECONOMIC
DAMAGE
CAVEATS
Excluded from this model
- Reconstruction financing costs
- Human capital losses
- Proxy force reconstitution costs
- FDI deterrence effects
- Agricultural sector losses
- Historical sites & cultural heritage
- Human casualties
Methodology Note
Economic analysis of Iran is always difficult, especially during an armed conflict. This model represents conservative estimates based on public sources and the authors' calculations. We will update and revise this model as new information becomes available and as the situation evolves. Where uncertainty is wide, we have erred on the side of caution — true costs are likely higher than the figures presented here.