After the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban seized control
of Kabul on August 15, 2021, the remnants of the Afghan military
regrouped in Panjshir and several neighboring districts in Baghlan.
The Taliban defeated this last vestige of resistance by September 6,
2021. By the spring of 2022, resistance to the Taliban began to grow,
primarily under the banner of the National Resistance Front. The
Taliban has surged forces into Panjshir and neighboring districts to
suppress the resistance, but so far has been unsuccessful in defeating
it.
This map is a district-level assessment of the resistance to
the Taliban in Afghanistan. The assessment began in July 2022.
The map is updated as new information is obtained.
Assessing the status of Afghanistan’s districts is
extremely difficult, especially since the collapse of the
Afghan government. It is far more difficult to obtain and
corroborate information without a vibrant, independent press
to verify claims by the Taliban and resistance groups.
This map attempts to assess the following:
Taliban-controlled districts, contested districts, districts
with significant guerrilla activity, and resistance-controlled
districts.
A
"Controlled" district
is defined as a district where either the Taliban or the
resistance administers, controls the district center, and
exerts security.
A
"Contested" district
is one where the resistance may have established bases or
controls villages, valleys, or significant areas that are used
to launch attacks against the Taliban.
A district
with
Guerrilla Activity is
defined as a district where the resistance is able to attack
Taliban forces but does not contest territory.
Sources
may include, but are not limited to, resistance claims of
attack, Taliban statements, news reports, and confidential
sources.
For nearly two decades, the government of Afghanistan — with the help of U.S. and coalition forces – battled for control of the country against the ever-present Afghan Taliban. FDD’s Long War Journal (LWJ) has tracked the Taliban’s attempts to gain control of territory since NATO ended its military mission in Afghanistan and switched to an “advise and assist” role in June 2014. The process of gathering the data for all 407 districts was difficult, and LWJ did not feel a complete picture was presentable until November 2017.
The primary data and research behind this assessment were
based on open-source information, such as press reports and
information provided by government agencies and the Taliban.
The map was updated as new information became available.
An
“Unconfirmed” district
colored yellow has some level of claim-of-control made by the
Taliban but has not yet been — or cannot be — independently
verified by LWJ research.
A
“Contested” district
may mean that the government is in control of the district
center or of buildings or a base within the district center,
but little else, while the Taliban controls large areas or all
the areas outside of the district center. Or the Taliban may
control several villages, mines, and other resources; run
prisons in the district; or administer areas of the district,
while the Afghan government controls large areas of the
district.
A
“Controlled” district
may mean the Taliban openly administers a district, provides
services and security, and runs the local courts.
LWJ may assess a district to be Taliban-controlled if
the district center frequently exchanges hands and/or the
government controls only a few buildings or villages in the
district.
Beginning in January 2018,
LWJ incorporated district-level data provided by the
Special Investigator General for Afghanistan Reconstruction
(SIGAR), which are based on assessments by Resolute Support,
NATO’s command in Afghanistan. This information helped fill in
the reporting gaps on districts with little open-source
information. (Note: reporting on more opaque districts
improved beginning in mid-2019.)
However, Resolute
Support’s reports have continually downplayed the Taliban’s
level of control as well as the number of contested districts.
For an explanation and analysis of why, see this
LWJ report: “US military assessment of Taliban control of Afghan
districts is flawed.”
In April 2019, Resolute Support stopped
producing its assessments. The U.S. Department of Defense
stated that negotiations with the Taliban, and not the status
of Afghanistan’s districts, were the real metric of progress.
For a detailed explanation of this decision, see this
LWJ report: “US military ends reporting on security situation in
Afghanistan’s districts.”
This series of maps was originally created by Bill Roggio/FDD’s Long War Journal for National Geographic to assess Taliban control and influence in Afghanistan’s provinces and provincial capitals. The maps begin with September 10, 2001, and cover several key dates until the Taliban swept into Kabul and defeated the last Afghan government resistance on September 6, 2021.
With the increasing resistance to the Taliban in central and northern Afghanistan, the cycle is sure to continue.
For press inquiries, or requests regarding map
or data usage, email
press@fdd.org
