Mapping the Fall of Afghanistan

Bill Roggio | FDD's Long War Journal

August 29, 2022
Taliban hold military parade with weapons and vehicles left behind by US
By Anadolu Agency/Footage | Getty Images

After the fall of the Afghan government and the Taliban seized control of Kabul on August 15, 2021, the remnants of the Afghan military regrouped in Panjshir and several neighboring districts in Baghlan. The Taliban defeated this last vestige of resistance by September 6, 2021. By the spring of 2022, resistance to the Taliban began to grow, primarily under the banner of the National Resistance Front. The Taliban has surged forces into Panjshir and neighboring districts to suppress the resistance, but so far has been unsuccessful in defeating it.

Map of Afghanistan’s Resistance

Updated Regularly

Taliban Control
Contested
1
5
Guerrilla Activities
(Degree of Resistance)

For nearly two decades, the government of Afghanistan — with the help of U.S. and coalition forces – battled for control of the country against the ever-present Afghan Taliban. FDD’s Long War Journal (LWJ) has tracked the Taliban’s attempts to gain control of territory since NATO ended its military mission in Afghanistan and switched to an “advise and assist” role in June 2014. The process of gathering the data for all 407 districts was difficult, and LWJ did not feel a complete picture was presentable until November 2017.

Control and Contested Regions of Afghanistan

2017 - 2021

Taliban Control
Contested
Government Control
Unconfirmed Taliban Control

Vicious Cycle of Afghanistan

This series of maps was originally created by Bill Roggio/FDD’s Long War Journal for National Geographic to assess Taliban control and influence in Afghanistan’s provinces and provincial capitals. The maps begin with September 10, 2001, and cover several key dates until the Taliban swept into Kabul and defeated the last Afghan government resistance on September 6, 2021.

2000 | Pre-9/11

The Taliban controls nearly the entirety of 32 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Only Panjshir and Badakhshan, as well as small areas of neighboring provinces (not shown) are controlled by the Northern Alliance.

Early 2002 | Post-U.S. Invasion

The Taliban is driven from power by the U.S. with the help of the northern Alliance and other militias. The Taliban lose control of all provincial capitals, but maintain varying degrees of presence in the provinces.

Early 2009 | Pre-Surge

The Taliban reinitiated its bid to retake the country from its safe havens in Pakistan and its influence expanded in the south, east and north. Several provincial capitals were under Taliban threat.

2012 | Post-U.S. troop surge

The 'Surge' was successful in relieving the pressure on the provincial capitals and driving the Taliban from key areas in the south, east, and north. However, the success of the surge was short lived. The Obama Administration was clear that the increased U.S. presence would be limited to two years. The Taliban went underground and waited for U.S. forces to leave.

June 20, 2021 | Withdrawal

By 2014, the U.S. military turned over security to the Afghan military. The Taliban began to move back into traditional strongholds and take the fight to the Afghan military. By mid-June 2021, the Taliban was predominant in provinces throughout the country.

Sept 6, 2021 | Endgame

The Taliban began taking control of capitals and provinces, Zaranj in Nimruz being the first, on Aug. 5. The north and west fell first, followed by the south, then the east. On Aug. 15, the Taliban entered Kabul. On September 6, Taliban gained total control over Afghanistan.

2000 | Pre-9/11

The Taliban controls nearly the entirety of 32 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. Only Panjshir and Badakhshan, as well as small areas of neighboring provinces (not shown) are controlled by the Northern Alliance.

Early 2002 | Post-U.S. Invasion

The Taliban is driven from power by the U.S. with the help of the northern Alliance and other militias. The Taliban lose control of all provincial capitals, but maintain varying degrees of presence in the provinces.

Early 2009 | Pre-Surge

The Taliban reinitiated its bid to retake the country from its safe havens in Pakistan and its influence expanded in the south, east and north. Several provincial capitals were under Taliban threat.

2012 | Post-U.S. troop surge

The 'Surge' was successful in relieving the pressure on the provincial capitals and driving the Taliban from key areas in the south, east, and north. However, the success of the surge was short lived. The Obama Administration was clear that the increased U.S. presence would be limited to two years. The Taliban went underground and waited for U.S. forces to leave.

June 20, 2021 | Withdrawal

By 2014, the U.S. military turned over security to the Afghan military. The Taliban began to move back into traditional strongholds and take the fight to the Afghan military. By mid-June 2021, the Taliban was predominant in provinces throughout the country.

Sept 6, 2021 | Endgame

The Taliban began taking control of capitals and provinces, Zaranj in Nimruz being the first, on Aug. 5. The north and west fell first, followed by the south, then the east. On Aug. 15, the Taliban entered Kabul. On September 6, Taliban gained total control over Afghanistan.

With the increasing resistance to the Taliban in central and northern Afghanistan, the cycle is sure to continue.




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Feature Illustration by Daniel Ackerman
Design and Development by Pavak Patel