China Probes Taiwan's Defenses

China’s military pressure around Taiwan has become a persistent feature of Beijing’s coercive campaign, with air and maritime operations occurring on a near-daily basis. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s second term has featured renewed engagement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping aimed at achieving greater “strategic stability” even as competition continues over trade, technology, and other core issues. Has Beijing adjusted the scale and tempo of its military activity around Taiwan, the relationship’s most dangerous flash point, in response to Trump’s approach? This tracker pairs daily Chinese military operations with major developments in U.S.-China, U.S.-Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations to identify patterns and shifts over time.

The visualization compiles publicly reported Chinese military aircraft sorties and maritime activity around Taiwan beginning on the first day of Trump's second term and will be updated throughout his administration. It captures both long-term operational trends and short-term fluctuations, allowing readers to assess whether spikes or lulls coincide with diplomatic engagements, arms sales announcements and other significant policy and security developments. Over time, the tracker aims to provide a consistent analytical baseline for testing assumptions about the effects of Trump's China policy and whether Beijing's coercive activity is meaningfully changing, either steadily intensifying or largely following established patterns.